2008 Predictions from Startup Addict Musings

Web 2.0 startups precipitously funded in 2007 with “me-too” syndrome will join the growing dead pool in 2008.

Startup Addict Musing predictions:

1. I will finally get StartupAddict 2.0 launched (startupaddict.com) by Jan 31. 2008 with a 500K subscriber user-base goal by the end of 2008.

2. Web 2.0 term will die (or at least graduate to new jargon)

3. Battle for web-service applications and a continued shift to web OS by the big three (yahoo, Google and Microsoft). The web-service business model will continue to flourish startups.

4. Google will move into the content world rather than just be an information aggregator. This trend will traverse into many of the advertising networks. The networks will delve into content themselves and serve relevant ads. Fragmentation will continue in ad networks as in-house bias content is favored over independent content providers / publishers.

5. Online web users and subscribers will intermingle more freely between social networks through open standards and widgets.

6. Companies will monetize the built-in audiences of many email clients (gmail, hotmail) and Instant Messengers with advertising and additional social services.

7. Google will continue to strive for world domination in just about every technology business vertical you can think of.

8. Linked-In will try to go public, be acquired or revamp and monetize its’ user-base further.

Other great 2008 predictions:

Mashable

Rootly

ReadWriteWeb

ClickZ

Battelle always has compelling and usually very accurate predictions. Check out his 2007 prediction roundup to see how he did.

Hulu launches, only in invite private beta

Hulu invite only beta
Hulu is the newly proposed “Youtube killer” from NBC Universal and News Corporations joint venture.
Hulu is an invite only beta which I had the opportunity to test….Only 580 invites left and counting, according to OM only 2500 invites were up for grabs. The Hulu site is no joke in terms of weighing in on the video scene. The site raised $100 million in financing from Providence Equity Partners, well above other Youtube copycat sites. Not a surprising first round with Youtube securing a purchase price of $1.6 billion by Google and major players like NBC and News Corp that have built-in content and built-in audiences– probably not a bad bet for Providence Equity Partners. Makes you wonder if the mob is affiliated with web 2.0 these days (just kidding, I have a buddy from Federal Hill, RI).

Back to the invite beta only that I experienced. I truly thought the user interface rocked the house, more friendly and more intuitive than Youtube. All the ajax and jquery bells and whistles were associated with the site. Besides an interface work-over that is better than Youtube, Hulu can truly offer a competitive advantage with premium content that can be subsidized by large advertisers similar to a 30-second spot on the traditional NBC network. Family guy, Simpsons, Las Vegas, on and on the content kept coming. This type of content is usually covered by my wonderful DVR, but seeing how I had an DVR meltdown (issued box by Comcast) I thought Hulu really filled a gap in my content viewing lifestyle. First of all my iPod couldn’t obtain any of the missed shows because of an NBC and iTunes fallout, so NBC and News Corp have clearly picked up the content ball here with Hulu on the Internet. Youtube competitor (maybe), but I’m more likely to say Hulu fills a consumer need of that of a DVR and Tivo. Content your way right away when you want it. Youtube continues to comprise of a plethora of amateur videos that is a launching board for Google consumer video search.

I Hope you all can catch the last 100 invites by the time you read this blog post. As an insider the private invite beta email from Hulu will read as follows:

Upon signing in with your temporary login and password you will be
prompted to choose a permanent login and password. This will provide
access for one individual to the Hulu.com beta. For now, videos are
available for streaming from the U.S. only. That said, our intention
is to make Hulu’s growing content lineup available worldwide in the
future.

This private beta period is our chance to gather real user feedback
and refine the user experience, so let us know not only what you like,
but also what you think we could be doing better. There is a feedback
button located to the left of every video screen. By clicking on the
feedback button, you will open up a feedback form where you can easily
provide a suggestion or comment. You also have the option of sending
your feedback directly to feedback@hulu.com.

The team will be reading these messages every day and we hope to
address your feedback as soon as possible. Over the course of this
preview, we will be adding more content and updating features, so please
check back often.

We hope you enjoy the Hulu service and look forward to hearing from you,

The Hulu team

http://www.hulu

Live Gamer to sell MMOG digital goods

Live Gamer This is a brilliant startup idea for a fast growing and high demand market. I use to be hooked on “Lineage” a World of Warcraft type MMOG where I found myself addicted and actually paying real world money for virtual clothing, bow and arrows etc. Effectively supporting a frowned upon gaming practice known as “gold-farming” (virtual money, exchanged for real money). I was forced to navigate sketchy websites carefully because some websites never deliver the digital goods after you purchase. Furthermore, game publishers frown on the practice and do not condone such activity.

The demand was clear but not the solution where game developers granted consent of third-party wares or trophy wares from the game, a legitimate marketplace is needed. Enter
Live Gamer with a trademark statement of “A legitimate market for virtual trading.” The company officially launched yesterday armed with $24 million in funding from Charles River, Kodiak and Pequot Ventures. The gamer has a real opportunity to make money with only 10% of the sales price being split between Live Gamer and the publisher with the remaining 90% of the sale price going to the gamer. The startups mission statement on the home page is the following:

Live Gamer enables a complete marketplace solution for the player-to-player trading of virtual items. Through our partnerships with leading publishers and developers worldwide, players now have a convenient, secure, and reliable outlet to buy and sell virtual goods and objects. Only Live Gamer provides virtual trading the way it should be: Safe. Simple. In Game.

The all encompassing ebay for MMOG approach should pay off big and ultimately spur a flurry of good virtual startups (think facebook apps) in a marketplace that will return real money or nice bartering opportunities.

Knol and Google’s plan to take over the world.

“Your over-confidence will be your downfall.” – Luke Skywalker

“Your faith in your friends will be yours.” – Darth Sidious

“Don’t be Evil” – Google’s original mantra is put to the test daily…headline by headline of their galactic domination. Google’s recent launch of “Knol”, a competitor to Wikipedia is making huge ripples in Google’s supposedly non-bias data indexing pond. As techcrunch points out Google has gone from indexing content to being a full blown content provider themselves.GigaOm also has a very interesting take and convincing analogy pertaining to Google’s attempt to manipulate the destiny of others based on their own page rank system (PayperPost and realrank is an example of that). What is hysterical is who Om compares Google to:

Google using its page rank system to its own benefit. Think of it this way: Google’s mysterious Page Rank system is what Internet Explorer was to Microsoft in the late 1990s: a way to control the destiny of others.

Knol is an interesting animal and it may benefit the little guy in big ways. Google suggested that ads will be split with contributers (experts on subjects that create content). The problem is how Google serves the results of Knol over blogs, wikipedia and other sites. Favoritism has enter the equation some where.

One only needs to look at Google’s expansion patterns to realize the little search engine that good know much more than Search. Being a public company requires meeting expectations for growth and with wall streets benchmarks and lofty alphas ratios so high simply does not allow the company to stay in the search arena. The company would never be able to sustain the 700+ share price to remain in ideal search. The take over the world list is getting bigger and faster by the headline:

1. Orkut and opensocial (backdoor approach to social networking with a built in audience that doesn’t even know their going social)
2. Android and open handset alliance (getting in bed with the big boys and then will launch a phone of their own….they’re buying spectrum for crying out loud.)
3. Consumer Hardware – (look what it did for apple and the writing is on the wall)
4. The premier ad network for Internet, Television and Radio. (effectively killing the traditional ad agency or making them adapt under the G-umbrella)

These are but just a few of the verticals Google is re-writing the rules and dominating.

Google’s Mobile OS and continued spectrum pursuit.

The Gphone (Google hates the name) hasn’t arrived yet, but Android powered phones are rumored to arrive sometime in the 2nd half of 2008. I don’t want to beat a dead horse but Android is a free linux based mobile software software and the codename for the Open Handset Alliance consisting of over 30 software and hardware manufacturers

A very recent and surprising addition to the Open Handset Alliance was Verizon. This rounds out the (OHA) heavy weights to Sprint, Tmobile and Verizon leaving AT&T and the touted iPhone along with windows mobile and blackberry OS outside Android. Will we every see a Gphone? According to a recent article in PCWorld CEO Eric Schmidt of Google states:

“We’ll likely see many Google phones from a variety of wireless carriers. He also says that once software developers create a mature Android OS, it would be prime time for Google to release their phone”

I love the idea of opening up a very closed and proprietary wireless market but like many of the disrupting services that Google offers, what happens when the phone does arrive? Where does that leave the rest of the alliance? Consumers will be very comfortable to the new mobile OS and loyalty will only go to the most flexible provider.

Youtube finally lets us make money

Youtube opens up the money-sharing program that so many other video sites have adopted. Google is sharing the wealth of Youtube’s ad revenue for the hard work and dedication of video producers and entrepreneurs. It could be worth your while according to the wired article:

Partners who regularly produce videos with more than 1 million pageviews earn “several thousand dollars per month,” according to YouTube.

I’m still a fan of metacafe which pays you $5 bucks per thousand views. Nothing to write home about, but it’s better than a slap in the head. I have found the dumber the video the more it is watched, although there are a few how to exceptions that rival even instructables. It will be interesting to watch the success of the Youtube program.

The more popular the mo’money you will get….the shared wealth is finally coming to the web, after all if everything is user generated content, the user should benefit.

Agloco is going under

agloco logoThe 2008 new year is looming and like many of the Venture Capitalists have been hoping the web 2.0 phrase may finally lose it’s luster and make way for the next buzzword, but not before loosing some casualties of war. Agloco one of the most hyped web 2.0 startups and a protracted launch (even longer than the 2.0 release of StartupAddict, may be going under according to Venture Beat. and a source that Agloco close to closing up shop. This comes on the heels of Edgeio and Feedster taking dirt naps as well.

Check out the nice explaination of the Agloco pyramid scheme and companies that attempt that method.

Vivendi buys 52% stake in Activision

Vivendi known for the wildly popular World of Warcraft purchased a 52 percent controlling stake in Activision in a equity and cash deal totaling 9.8 billion.

Activision has a long list of hits running from Guitar hero to theTony Hawk Series. The combination of Vivendi’s 9.3 million World of Warcraft subscribers and Activision’s console lineup will be a force to reckon with. Activision should get a nice stock bump (ATVI) on an already beautiful stock run. This will certainly give EA Games some healthy competition although EA doesn’t seem all that nervous.

Jean-Bernard Levy, chairman and chief executive officer of Vivendi, pledged the deal “will unlock the value of Blizzard.”

Jeff Brown, spokesman for Electronic Arts: “We wish them luck. We look forward to the competition and believe that EA still has the strongest portfolio of perennial game franchises.”

Yahoo Finance for full story.

Facebook loses advertisers on privacy concerns.

Facebook privacy woes are steadily becoming an uphill battle with much more at stake than activist groups like moveon.org. Facebook’s Beacon and web-tracking tactics continue to have far too many unknowns and is starting to cost Facebook flag-ship clients like Coca-Cola. I have no doubt that Facebook will eventually get the privacy concerns addressed especially with 55 million users at stake. FB is in a very delicate stage as it pioneers social advertising.

PayPerPost combats Google with Real Rank

PayPerPost
PayperPost fights Google’s Page Rank with a new Real Rank system, that has received mixed reviews. I originally posted about Google’s link adjustment onslaught a half a month ago. The Real Rank system works a 10 base numerical ranking system 1 – 9. An advertiser selects a number such as 6 which effectively excludes 60% of bloggers from the opportunity leaving the top 40% of “Real Rank” bloggers the opportunity. WebDosh is a fan of the Real Rank and can get more info there. ComtechNews on the other hand feels Payperpost has taken a hasty turn with the new Real Rank, (at least in its’ existing form). Be sure to check out his top four reasons why and the consultation to Payperpost on how to fix Real Rank.

As for me, I have always been a fan of PayperPost and will continue to applaud Ted Murphy for being an successful entrepreneur that fits well with the Startup Addict motto “Dream Big, Be Great”. Don’t forget PPP received 7 million in VC recently before the IZEA umbrella rebrand and the company wasn’t going to lay down for anybody, including Google.